As we head into the final stretch of 2026, there's been some interesting movement in the freight market. According to the latest data, total load volumes up 34% year over year, while spot rates have climbed 35%. And when we break things down by equipment type, we're seeing some even bigger increases. Drive and spot rates are up nearly 49%. Refrigerated rates are up 41%, and flatbed rates have increased 40% compared to this time just last year.

So what's driving these changes and what might they mean for the trucking industry as we head in to 2027? Well, let's check in with our friend Jason Miller for a more detailed look at the economy and what's going on in the trucking sphere. So where we're sitting here in early to mid November is spot rates have started to march up a little bit more worried about 310 a mile per day as a time of settlement. Broker by contract, his went up to about 332.

And so what that means is the spread between those two, which has historically been very good at predicting swings and market cycles. We're still in a market that favors carriers. Again, we're not as tight as we were and May, June and July, but we're still in that carrier favoring market. That suggests, as we go through the rest of this year and into Q1 next year, there's going to be further room for contract rates to rise further.

Now in the diesel side, we have come down from September's record high prices, but we're still roughly around 620 US a gallon nationally right now. At the moment. We'll get AIA data this week to see where things are at. But we're still very, very, very high. So just keeping that in mind. We're not expecting this to come down very, very, very barring some change in the situation in the Middle East.

Now, if we look right now, again, the story in terms of marginal growth of freight demand, it's really being driven by this fiscal ecosystem supporting AI computing, the data center construction data for September set another record. We're now six and a half times the amount of data center being built today, as we were building four years ago, before large language models became popularized. And so just to again, think about that, that means we're now building more data center in one month, and we build in six months, four years ago when people talk about impressive.

This is truly one of the times that term actually has merit, because we have never actually seen a sector experienced such a growth of construction. Now when we look then overall demand picture for trucking, we did see new order momentum step back a little bit in October, based on a combination of Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys, as well as the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers index. That stepped down was primarily because the Federal Reserve surveys showed a cooling in October.

In terms of new order momentum across Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas, as well as Richmond, the Federal Reserve District in New York was still doing quite well. But this said, this kind of brings us back to sort of the 2012 through 2019 average. So it's not really what I'd say of bad rating. It's just a little bit of cooling momentum. Fed raise interest rates in September.

So that's to be expected. When we look at supply and the truck inside though we're not really seeing any type of significant rebound. The boss is monthly survey places supply a touch above where it was at the low point of this year, which was February. But we're not seeing any type of significant increase. I tend to think those BLS data also overestimated right now based on their administrative records.

So if anything, I'd say capacity is neutral to a bottom that we have reached in, Q1 possibly. And so with that's just meaning is, is that as we move into next year, assuming demand stays where it is, there's a little bit more running room for contract rates to go up. Now, I do think the challenge is, is the comps are going to become much harder when we get into the back half of next year compared to the back half of this year.

And the number one thing we should all be looking at, really, as we move through the next coming months, is any sign of a cool down to this fiscal ecosystem supporting AI computing, because that is the key marginal driver of freight demand at the moment. But with that, that is our November update. We'll be back after Thanksgiving.

So everybody have a good start to the holiday season and we will see you then. Thanks, Jason. Helpful as always. So as you can see, there's quite a bit happening in the freight market, but there's another set of numbers I want to look at. And these hit a little closer to home for recruiting teams such as yourself. Because while market conditions continue to change, one thing is becoming increasingly clear recruiting drivers. Well, that's just getting more expensive.

According to our latest recruiting data, the average cost per lead increased another 10% in October. That puts it 53% higher than it was this time last year, and it's now at its highest level since April 2022. And that's not just leads. Our most recent hiring data shows the average cost to hire a company driver increased 12% in September, bringing it to 63% higher than a year ago. Meanwhile, Google search activity related to truck driving jobs. Well, that fell another 8% in October.

So what we're seeing is recruiting teams are spending more to generate leads in hires, while at the same time online search interest in truck driving jobs. Well, that keeps trending downward. And that makes getting the most out of every recruiting opportunity all the more important. Now here's another interesting development sign on bonuses are becoming even more common.

In October, 18.5% of new truck driving job postings on indeed included a sign on bonus. That's up 11.8% from a year ago. But here's what things really get interesting. When we asked drivers when a recruiter talks about bonuses, what's the first thing you want to know? Well, the overwhelming top answer it wasn't how big the bonus was. Nearly 48% said they wanted to know exactly what they had to do in order to get the bonus. Another 29% said they wanted to know how many drivers actually received the full bonus.

Only about 15% were most concerned with how long it would take to get paid. So just take a minute and think about that. As more fleets advertise bonuses to attract drivers, the drivers themselves are telling us that they want to understand the details. What do I have to do? Is this something I can realistically earn and how does this actually work? That's a good reminder that a bonus. Well, it might help get a driver's attention, but clear communication and realistic expectations. Well, that's just as important in helping keep that attention.

And speaking of expectations, we also recently asked this to drivers. Think about a fleet you left. What's the main thing that would have made you stay? The top answer, at just over 37%, was fixing the problems with pay or miles. Another 26% said changing how they were treated by dispatch or office personnel, and nearly 20% pointed to home time or scheduling problems, while about 17% one or more honesty and clarity about what was actually happening.

Now, obviously, not all of these issues are things that a recruiter can fix, but they do tell us something important about driver experiences. Drivers aren't just evaluating a job based on the offer that they receive. They're also evaluating whether the reality of that job matches what they were sold. And that's where good recruiting practices can make a difference. Asking the right questions. Understanding what matters to a candidate. Being upfront about the job and making sure that you're not promising something that the fleet can't deliver on.

These are all important steps, not just in getting the driver hired, but in keeping them around, because the goal isn't just to get someone through the door. It's to bring in someone who's a good fit and then give them a reason to stay. And with the holidays approaching, another year's coming to a close. Now's a good time to take a closer look at your recruiting process. Now, we've been talking a lot recently about ghosting and how drivers disengage during the hiring process, and the mistakes that could cause promising candidates to just walk away.

Now, with recruiting costs continuing to climb those missed opportunities while they're getting even more expensive. So as you take time for prepare for 2027, I want you to ask yourself a few questions. Are we making the most of the leads that we're already generating? Are we taking the time to understand what drivers actually want? And are we setting the right expectations? From the very first conversation. Because market conditions, those are going to continue to change. Freight demand it will shift and recruiting costs will rise and fall.

But the fundamentals of good recruiting are always going to matter. And if you're looking for ways to strengthen those fundamentals, well, we've got a new resource coming out a little later this month that highlights seven things good recruiters do. It takes a practical look at some of the habits and approaches that can help recruiters build stronger relationships with drivers and make the most out of every single conversation.

So keep an eye out for that. And as always, if you want to closer look at any of the data covered in today's show, we got it all. Everything I covered, plus a whole lot more. And this month's edition of the 30 day Reset download. You can find the link for that right down below. And that's your 30 day reset for November 2026. We'll be back next month with more data and another update. Until then, thanks for watching.