Freight continues to improve. But the real question is what's driving that improvement? And the answer may not be what you expect. We'll dig into the freight numbers, look at the latest recruiting trends, and check in with Jason Miller for his thoughts on how everything is impacting the economy on this edition of the 30 Day Reset.

Let's start with the freight market. The numbers paint a much healthier picture than they did this time last year. Overall spot rates climbed 41% year over year, while total load volume increased 19%.

If we break it down by segment, dry van rates climbed 40% while load volume increased 20%. Refrigerated rates were up 38% and load volume was up 9%. And flatbed led the way, with spot rates climbing 44% and load volume rising 19% year over year.

On the surface, all of this seems to be telling us that the freight market is back and the numbers look strong. However, according to our friend Jason Miller, the real story isn't simply that freight is recovering. It's why.

While freight demand has improved, the overwhelming majority of that improvement continues to come from the physical infrastructure being built around the AI computing boom. We're talking data centers, electrical equipment, heavy machinery, and all the construction materials needed to support that growth.

The freight market is indeed improving, but it hasn't been a broad-based recovery lifting every segment equally. It's a recovery being driven by very specific parts of the economy.

But don't take my word for it. Let's check in with Jason Miller to hear what he's saying with his latest economic update.

Starting off with where dry van spot rates are, the data is suggesting we're probably hitting a plateau. So we've seen DAT's all-in spot rate data. We've basically been kind of unchanged between June, July, and August. Now, if anything, slight dip on the all-in rate and certainly on the linehaul, right?

With diesel having went up from where it was, especially late June and early July, on a linehaul basis rates are not quite what they were, but they're still really strong. They're up 43% year over year on a linehaul basis. So certainly much more profitable to be operating today than what it was last year at this time. So that is the good news.

But this is regular sort of seasonal behavior. So what I would tell folks is, barring something odd happening, probably should be expecting sort of the seasonal, you know, doldrums in the spot market until we get into late Q4 of this year. So November and especially December, we should expect those rates to go up again.

But we do seem to have, you know, reached, at least for now, kind of a peak. And one indicator for those of you out there that's really good to keep track of: I just go to DAT's website, pull their contract data, which effectively is capturing rates that they're observing aren't changing over a couple-day period. So call it inferred contract rate, and then pure spot rate.

The difference between those two series divided by the average, which I call the spot market cycle indicator, that has been a very good predictor of where cycles are at. Right now through August, we're still very tight. We're well below the sort of magical 10% threshold that has delineated shifts in the market.

So we're still really tight, but we are off of, I'm going to say, sort of the peak tightness levels, which in my eyes, if I had to pick a one-month period of peak tightness in this market, it would have been Roadcheck Week through most of June. So that seems to have been sort of the peak tightness that we've been at. And we've seen tender rejection rates come down a little bit, etc. So this is just something to be, you know, watching very closely.

So from a demand standpoint, the trucking ton-mile index is suggesting further growth in demand from where we've been. So June is up right now about a full percentage point from where it was last year.

We've had very robust growth in '26. This is almost entirely tied to this physical ecosystem supporting AI computing: electrical goods, wholesaler sales, construction, steel, machinery, you know, engines, turbines, things of that sort that are needed for building data centers.

And we saw further acceleration of price-adjusted data center construction in June. So this doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon. So that's a good outlook for demand for the second half of this year, with, of course, the caveat that more consumer discretionary sectors and/or sectors tied to single-family housing, like major appliances, like furniture, those are struggling right now at the moment.

And then we haven't talked capacity in a while, but the latest employment data that's been released for the detailed subsectors now through June is showing that, at least amongst employer establishments on the dry van truckload side, we seem to be plateauing, maybe ever so slightly off of lows that we saw in January and February of this year.

But overall, the available data is telling us capacity is falling back to where it was in like early 2013. And we're expecting any type of rebound to be quite slow. No one is anticipating these very sharp payroll gains like we saw in, let's say, 1997 through 1999, or 2004 through 2006, or 2018 and 2019, and certainly 2021 through 2022.

But what this also means is we're just not seeing any evidence yet, based on the available data, of regulatory enforcement resulting in huge eliminations of employee capacity. Maybe that'll change with some benchmarking, and we'll get some more data next month that'll help us understand that.

But it seems to me that right now, the best thesis is what we've had happen is ongoing capacity exit due to three years of weak market conditions, and then regulatory enforcement causing tightening on certain lanes and for certain carriers that are likely very spot-market centric.

And that is what has led to the sharp increases in spot market rates, in addition to very strong sort of sector-specific demand spikes, particularly tied to this physical ecosystem supporting AI.

But that wraps up what we've got for August. Drive safe out there, and we'll be back in September.

Thank you for that, Jason. Your input is always appreciated. And now that we've got a better handle on what's happening economically, we can dig a little bit deeper with recruiting, because with those stronger freight market numbers, we've also seen a shift in recruiting as well.

Google search activity for truck driving jobs has remained relatively flat over the past few months, but we're seeing meaningful movement elsewhere.

More companies are raising pay. Guaranteed pay and sign-on bonuses continue to become more common. And perhaps most importantly, drivers also appear more willing to make a move—a noticeable shift from what we've seen over the past year.

And all this is reflected in recruiting performance as well. While lead costs remain elevated compared to historical norms, hiring costs declined as lead-to-hire conversions improved. In other words, recruiters are seeing more drivers actually follow through once they begin the hiring process.

For recruiters, that's encouraging news, but it also means competition is likely becoming more intense.

So as carriers compete harder for drivers, execution matters more than ever. And with that in mind, we recently asked drivers what is most likely to make them lose interest after they've already applied to a job.

Number one response: no one contacts them after several days. Close behind were inconsistent communication from multiple recruiters, being pushed towards jobs they never applied for, and repeatedly being asked for the same information.

Now notice what's not on the list. Drivers aren't primarily talking about pay or equipment. They're talking about communication. Interesting.

We also asked drivers one more question: If you could change just one thing about the hiring process, what would it be?

The most common answer wasn't making the application shorter. It wasn't changing the recruiter's first phone call. Instead, drivers wanted fleets to improve orientation and provide stronger support during those critical first weeks and months after being hired.

That's an important reminder that recruiting doesn't end when a driver accepts the offer. The hiring experience extends well beyond day one.

And that is what's going to bring us to this month's download. If AI is influencing freight demand and beginning to reshape how carriers compete for drivers, we want to know one thing: How are fleets actually using AI today?

So we asked fleet leaders exactly that. Here's what we found.

Despite all the attention AI receives, roughly one in five fleets told us they aren't using AI anywhere in their process. And among fleets that are using it, adoption isn't centered around standalone AI tools. Instead, they're taking advantage of AI tools built right into the trucking platforms they already trust and use every day.

We also found that recruiting currently shows the strongest reported return on investment of any AI use case we've studied, and that makes sense.

If drivers consistently tell us they want faster communication and quicker responses, any technology that helps fleets answer calls and engage applicants faster is naturally going to solve one of the biggest friction points in the entire hiring process.

At the same time, the biggest challenge fleets reported wasn't cost or competitive pressure. It was trust. Many fleets still want a person involved in important decisions. AI can improve the process, but it should not replace the human element. The challenge is finding the right balance.

So where does that leave us? When you zoom out, all of this data really tells one story.

AI is fueling freight demand through massive infrastructure investment. That stronger freight market is creating more competition for drivers, and fleets are beginning to use AI to compete more effectively.

The question is no longer whether AI is changing trucking. The question is: Where is AI being used to create real value?

If you'd like to dive deeper into our fleet AI use numbers, our full Fleet AI Report is coming out later this month. But if you want to dig into everything we covered today, you can get this month's 30 Day Reset download right now.

It has all the latest recruiting and freight data, all the charts featured in Jason Miller's update, and the driver polling data we talked about provided by Truckers News. There's a lot to dig into and it's free, so I'd encourage you to check it out.

And if you just want to dig into all the numbers yourself and do some exploring on your own, I'll leave a link for Stratas down below as well.

That's going to do it for this month's 30 Day Reset. We'll be back in September to cover all the latest data with another update. And until then, thanks for watching.