Welcome back to another 30 day reset. Looking at all the data we've pulled together from the last month, one thing really stood out. Working drivers aren't moving, and that's what's created a very different recruiting environment than what we've seen over the past year. Fleets still want to hire, but competition continues to increase, and convincing a driver who's already in a good situation to make a change.

Well, that's becoming more difficult. Let's take a look at the numbers. We'll start with driver interest. Google searches for truck driving jobs fell another 5% in June and remain well below where they were a year ago. And that tells us fewer drivers are actively searching for new opportunities right now. And at the same time, competition among fleets. Well, that continues to increase.

June saw the highest number of new truck driver job postings since at least the beginning of 2022, with nearly 16,000 different trucking companies actively recruiting. So fewer drivers are looking, more companies are trying to hire them. And that's putting immense pressure on fleet recruiting efforts across the board. Lead costs remain elevated, hiring costs increase again. And because of that, fleets are turning to guaranteed pay and sign on bonuses to try and separate themselves from the competition.

But perhaps the most interesting trend this month isn't that recruiting is becoming more expensive. It's why the data suggests working drivers simply have fewer reasons to leave than they did a year ago. They're searching less, they're more hesitant to switch companies, and even after applying, more drivers are choosing to stay where they are. For fleets, recruiting is becoming less about finding drivers and more about getting working drivers a compelling reason to actually make a change.

If you'd like to take a full dive into all the data in more detail, you can find the link for this month's 30 day reset download below. And if you're Stratas® subscriber, don't forget you can explore all these recruiting trends and the market intelligence section that includes driver competition, recruiting cost, job postings, and other market indicators that update throughout the month.

And that brings us to this month's Driver poll. We ask drivers which step of the hiring and onboard process feels most like it was designed without asking drivers top answer orientation. It's an interesting result because one of the topics we're exploring in this month's download, The Seven Deadly Sins of Driver Recruiting, looks at what happens when fleets cut corners during orientation to try to save some time and money.

Saving a few dollars up front can create a first impression that costs far more down the road, and it certainly doesn't help your recruiting efforts overall. In fact, 83% of drivers say they've walked away from fleets after feeling let down with a bad orientation. That full download will be available a little later this month, so keep your eye out for that.

But recruiting doesn't happen in isolation, and one reason working drivers may be choosing to stay put is because freight conditions continue to improve. According to FDR, overall spot market load volume is up 20% compared to this time last year, while spot rates climbed 47% and spot rates across all three major equipment segments drive and refrigerated flatbed, they're all up more than 40% year over year.

But those numbers alone don't tell the whole story. Much of today's freight growth appears to be tied to a very specific segment of the economy the rapid buildout of AI infrastructure. And with that, Jason Miller takes a closer look at what's driving that demand, what it means for trucking, and why it's worth keeping an eye on kicking us off right now, especially with the drop in diesel prices we saw in late June and then the very start of July that we're expecting diesel to go up.

Looking at how the futures markets been behaving in the last few days, but we've seen aggregate truckload line haul spot rates are getting very close to the all time records that we saw in late, late 21, early 2022. Now, again, that doesn't mean that it is overall as profitable as it was back then because maintenance costs are higher.

Everything else is higher today than what it was in late 21 early 22. But that is a good, encouraging sign right now. And we've talked so much about this being a supply driven story, but really, the thing that stood out for the most recent data on the Trucking ten mile index that I coauthor is that demand growth so far in actually 2026 is starting to look a little better.

May was an exceptionally strong reading, and that was a strong enough growth that it's driving overall industry revenue to the highest record, highest recorded value we've ever seen, even though freight volumes are not what they were in the first part of 2022 just yet. Now, the real story behind that volume growth, it's really all connected to this physical ecosystem to support AI computing and the build out of that.

So we have data just benchmark from the Census Bureau. The estimate right now is that data center construction is about four times what it was before ChatGPT was unveiled in early 2023 and became popularized. It is worth stressing how just abnormal that is, to see a construction sector increase four times over just a three year horizon. But that is basically what we're looking at right now, and we're not seeing really any signs of this slowing down right now, certainly not through the rest of this year.

Now, the one reason this matters is we've seen, for example, spending on manufacturing plants. It has been declining very sharply through 25 as well as through 26. So it is important to understand that we do have a very, very, very tight, you know, concentration of risk from a freight market standpoint in what is going on in this fiscal ecosystem to support AI computing.

And we're seeing that show up even in select wholesale trade sectors whose business is tied to this electrical goods. So providing the wiring and providing the GPUs, providing basically everything you need to support power generation. We've seen price and seasonally adjusted sales. They're almost double now what they were in 2019 during a very good economic period. So think about that.

A sector having double the amount of sales that we previously had, and we've been growing at 25% year over year and heading straight up. That's clearly due to this drive, demand for the power generation needs of data centers and outfitting them. And we even saw machinery wholesale sales actually broke a new all time price adjusted record in May of this year.

A lot of that is likely again, supporting that AI data center ecosystem. Wall Street Journal had a great article about how engine manufacturers are benefiting because of all the power needs, and we also see this showing up in our trade data. We've had record imports of generators and transformers and accessories, and imports today are double what they were in 2019.

So we're importing twice the amount of goods, even adjusted for pricing. And things like GPUs and whatnot. Are imports today even adjusted for the rapid increase in pricing, there are over two and a half times what they were just a couple years ago. And what this means is, I mean, we are in the middle of an essentially unprecedented capital expenditure boom to support this fiscal ecosystem for AI.

But what this also means is that the health of freight volumes is now very much tied to one specific sector, to the greatest degree that we have seen since the fracking boom and about 2011 through 2014, when that boom went bust in 2015, two drove us into a freight recession. That same concern applies today. And so even though we don't think about, you know, AI, computing and freight is necessarily going hand in hand, they are right now.

So that's why following that news cycle is very important from a strategic planning standpoint. But that's our July update. We'll be back next month to see how things have been turning out. What the fed does this month. As always, great info. Thanks so much for that, Jason. But before we wrap up, I have one more interesting result from this month's polling.

We asked drivers when a fleet fixes a mistake, whether it's pay home time or load issue, what matters most and whether you forgive it and move on. Interestingly enough, simply admitting the mistake ranked last. Instead, drivers said what matters most is fixing the issue quickly, followed by making sure it doesn't happen again and following up afterward. That's a good reminder.

Drivers don't expect perfection. They expect consistency. Remember, working drivers aren't moving right now, but when they eventually do decide to make a change, those everyday experiences, well, that can make all the difference. And whether your fleet is the one they choose. And that's it for this month's 30 day reset, remember, seven Deadly Sins of Driver recruiting will be available a little later this month.

In the meantime, you can download this month's 30 day reset below for all of today's recruiting and freight data. We'll see you back here next month with more data and an update on all the latest recruiting and freight news. Till then, thanks for watching.