Weekly Driver Recruiting Report – November 2, 2022

The Weekly Report brings you updated data on recruiting metrics including click, search, and spot rates, plus a new story of the week. This week’s story – as we head into 2023, signs point to a U.S. (and global) recession.

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Numbers at a Glance

November 2, 2022 Driver Recruiting Insights

Would you like to have your own copy of the trucking industry data? All of the information covered in this week’s report for November 2, 2022, is available for your convenience in PDF form below. Click the image to view and download your copy of the Weekly Trucking Insight.

Weekly Report Transcript – November 2, 2022

Hello everyone and welcome to the Weekly Report. We hope you all had a safe and fun Halloween. If you like our report videos don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe so you never miss a new video. Aside from all our video content, we do have other great resources available to you such as our brand-new eBook series, In the Driver’s Seat.

The first installment, “How Pay Affects Driver Retention”, is available right now. It’s got some really great information in it and it’s free – who doesn’t love that? So, if you haven’t already, I encourage you to check it out. I’ll leave some links for you down below.

Now let’s get to this week’s report.

THIS WEEK IN JOB BOARD SEARCHES AND CLICKS

Searches were up by 3% WoW … but everywhere else was in the red. There were declines of 8% MoM and 26% YoY. That red and the downward trend bled over into the clicks as well with declines across the board. Totals were down 1% WoW, 15% MoM, and 13% YoY.

THIS WEEK IN FREIGHT

Load volume was up by 2%. That number comes in 47% below the same week of 2021 and 2% below the five-year average. The gains were led by the West Coast with increases in the Southeast and South-Central regions helping to offset declines elsewhere.

Dry van load volume increased by 3% WoW as refrigerated loads inched up by 1%. Unfortunately, flatbed load volume is currently unavailable. Truck availability edged up by 1% as the ratio of loads to trucks increased after falling to its lowest level since May 2020 the previous week.

Spot rates fell by 2¢ per mile. That is 13% below the same week of 2021 but comes in 11% above the five-year average for the week. Rates excluding fuel surcharges, however, are now 26% higher than the same week of last year.

Dry van rates were down 5¢, refrigerated dropped by 2¢, and flatbed rates remained virtually unchanged WoW.

STORY OF THE WEEK

It seems like the economy has been a bit of a roller coaster ride lately but brace yourselves as the U.S. could be headed for a recession in early 2023. Since World War 2 the United States has battled through a dozen recessions, but it seems we’re destined for a 13^th.

Speaking at the American Trucking Associations Management Conference and Exhibition, a panel consisting of the Co-President of Boyle Transportation and ATA Vice Chairman, Andre Boyle, ATA Chief Economist, and SVP, Bob Costello, and … this is long one MUFG Securities Americas Managing Director, Global Head of Investment Banking Capital Markets Strategy, Tom Joyce, sat down to discuss the economic outlook.

Joyce cautioned, “We still have some difficult months ahead,” adding that “the low point for the U.S. economy is probably 6-9 months out. The consumer can handle high inflation for six (or) nine months, but it’s harder to handle for 12 to 18 months and that’s sort of exactly where we are.”

Joyce also believes that the U.S. will not be alone and sees a global recession on the horizon, however, there is a sliver of a silver lining here as he pointed out that economic recessions tend to be short, and he does expect this one to be “mild.”

The panel also noted that consumer spending on goods is falling. It’s down almost 1% and could fall 1.3% next year, which could end up impacting trucking demand. But Costello noted, “We’re still going to be the second and third highest years ever,” he said referring to consumption. He went on to add, “We’re just going back to more normal splits.”

Spot load postings have fallen 65% this year, but contract freight is growing and is up by 7.7%. The softening demand and an inability to get new equipment ended up shaving a few thousand off of the industry’s truck driver shortage, and it’s expected to do the same next year. Diesel prices are expected to come down in 2023 but would likely still be the second highest on record. Despite all that Costello and the panel acknowledged that there will be opportunities for success for smart operators as we move through 2023.

That does it for the Weekly Report. We hope it’s been useful and informative to you. As always you can download a PDF copy of everything, we covered today by clicking the link in the description of the YouTube video, or if you’re over on our Randall Reilly site just scroll on down until you see the Weekly Trucking Insight image and give it a click. Don’t forget to check out the first installment of our new In the Driver’s Seat eBook series. The “How Pay Affects Driver Retention” eBook is available right now, so give it a look-see. Until next week, have a good week everybody.