The Weekly Report brings you updates on the most important driver recruiting metrics each and every week. In addition to updated click, search and rates, we cover a new story of the week. This week’s story – The driver shortage has reached an estimated 25,000 and could last until 2022.
We provide the Weekly Report in numerous formats every week. Which one is right for you? Watch the latest reports on our Recruiting Resources or YouTube pages, use our Numbers at a Glance section for quick visual references, download the Weekly Report PDF (available below), read the transcript, or listen to the audio version of the October 13, 2021, Weekly Report below.
Truck Driver Searches
|WoW: ∇ Down 11%|
|MoM: ∇ Down 19%|
|YoY: ∇ Down 15%|
|WoW: ∇ Down 9%
Volume by Segment
|WoW: Dry Van ∇ Down 13%|
|WoW: Refrigerated ∇ Down 3%|
|WoW: Flatbed ∇ Down 8%|
Clicks On Driver Postings
|WoW: Δ Up 35%|
|MoM: ∇ Down 1%|
|YoY: Δ Up 49%
|WoW: Δ Up 9%|
|WoW: ∇ Down 4¢ per mile|
Rates by Segment
|WoW: Dry Van ∇ Down 2¢ per mile|
|WoW: Refrigerated ∇ Down 14¢ per mile|
|WoW: Flatbed ∇ Down 2¢ per mile|
Would you like to have your own copy of the trucking industry data? All of the information covered in this week’s report for October 13, 2021, is available for your convenience in PDF form below.
Welcome to the show that takes a look back to help you move forward. It’s the Weekly Report. For Randall-Reilly, I’m Joshua Miller. Now let’s get to why you’re here. Let’s dive into the numbers.
Truck driver searches were down across the board. We saw declines of 11% WoW, 19% MoM, and 15% YoY. For clicks on truck driver postings we saw an increase of 35% WoW, a 1% decline MoM, and an increase of 49% YoY.
Although searches dropped, the click rate rose sharply indicating that those drivers who are searching are likely serious and not just browsing.
Load postings fell by 9% WoW with all three major segments seeing declines. Dry van was down 13%, refrigerated dropped 3%, and flatbed saw an 8% decline WoW.
Truck availability rose by 9% WoW, and while I don’t have the individual segment percentage breakdowns, we do know that the availability was higher for each of the three major segments, and the load-to-truck ratio fell to its lowest point since Labor Day week.
Spot rates fell by 4¢ per mile WoW, and that overall decline carried over to all three segments. Dry van dropped by 2¢, refrigerated fell by 14¢, and flatbed saw a decrease of 2¢ per mile WoW.
There’s been talk of a truck driver shortage for quite some time, but just how many drivers are needed to meet the current demand? Well, Jason Miller – Miller … sounds like a smart guy. Mr. Miller is a tenured Associate Professor of Logistics at Michigan State’s Broad College of Business – try fitting that on a business card. Anyway, Jason set out to find exactly how many drivers would be needed to balance the demand for truck transportation with the supply of capacity.
His answer – 25,000 truck drivers are needed. How did he arrive at that number? Well, get ready for a lot of numbers and figures. The demand for truck transportation from a ton-mile standpoint is down 1.5% for Q2 2021, relative to Q2 2018. Miller expects demand for truck transportation will remain at its Q2 2021 levels for the remainder of the year.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, trucking employment for general freight, long distance truckload and LTL firms was approximately 790,000 in Q4 2018 – a demand environment akin to what we are experiencing right now.
Employment stood at 765,000 when the majority of the data was released (for June 2021). This data suggests a gap of 25,000 employees. Now Miller does emphasize that this information DOES NOT report on self-employed truck drivers. That being said, if self-employed workers today exceed what there were in late 2018 and 2019, then the 25,000-driver shortage estimate would be an over-estimation. However, the converse is also true … meaning if there are less self-employed drivers now than in 2018 and 2019 the shortage would be even larger than the 25,000 estimate.
If recent hiring trends continue, or even slow slightly, it is possible that the 25,000-worker gap can be closed by early 2022. In June and July of 2021, carriers were able to add an average of 6,200 workers every month. However, for the period between May 2020 and May 2021, fleets added just 1,700 employees per month. If that rate were to continue it could take nearly 15 months to close the worker gap.
And that does it for the Weekly Report. We hope this information has been useful to you. Don’t forget if you’d like to look over any of the numbers or figures we’ve covered here you can download our Weekly Driver Recruiting Insights PDF, which covers everything we’ve talked about here today. You can find links to download that insight on the blog page for this report, and it’s also available down in the description for the report video on our YouTube page. And if you head over to that YouTube page don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe! Until next week, have a great week everybody.