The Weekly Report brings you updates on the most important driver recruiting metrics each and every week. In addition to updated click, search, and rate data we cover a new story of the week. This week’s story – Experts are now calling this the worst supply chain/shortage environment since World War 2!
We provide the Weekly Report in numerous formats every week. Which one is right for you? Watch the latest reports on our Recruiting Resources or YouTube pages, use our Numbers at a Glance section for quick visual references, download the Weekly Report PDF (available below), read the transcript, or listen to the audio version of the September 22, 2021, Weekly Report below.
Truck Driver Searches
|WoW: ∇ Down 3%|
|MoM: ≡ Flat|
|YoY: ∇ Down 1%|
|WoW: Δ Up 26%
Volume by Segment
|WoW: Dry Van Δ Up 24%|
|WoW: Refrigerated Δ Up 22%|
|WoW: Flatbed Δ Up 30%|
|WoW: ∇ Down 6¢ per mile|
Clicks On Driver Postings
|WoW: ∇ Down 7%|
|MoM: Δ Up 5%|
|YoY: Δ Up 22%
|WoW: Δ Up 8%|
Truck Posting by Segment
|WoW: Dry Van Data Unavailable|
|WoW: Refrigerated Data Unavailable|
|WoW: Flatbed Data Unavailable|
Rates by Segment
|WoW: Dry Van ∇ Down 8¢ per mile|
|WoW: Refrigerated ∇ Down 8¢ per mile|
|WoW: Flatbed ∇ Down 2¢ per mile|
Would you like to have your own copy of the trucking industry data? All of the information covered in this week’s report for September 22, 2021, is available for your convenience in PDF form below.
Hello everyone, it’s Wednesday, September 22, 2021 – which means, it’s time for the Weekly Report. For Randall-Reilly I’m Joshua Miller. Let’s jump right in.
Searches were down 3% WoW, flat MoM, and down 1% YoY. Clicks were down 7% WoW, but saw increases of 5% MoM, and 22% YoY.
Last week saw search volume fluctuate depending on experience level. While inexperienced/trainee position searches increased sharply, the searches for experienced positions dropped by around 15% compared to the previous week.
And while the search numbers varied based on experience, the click counts declined at similar rates. This included the clicks on inexperienced/trainee positions. Despite the searches being up for that particular segment, the clicks nonetheless fell WoW.
Load postings shot up by 26% WoW as the volume exceeded the levels that were posted just prior to Labor Day. And with that jump in volume, all three major segments saw increases in load postings. Dry van increased by 24%, refrigerated postings were up 22%, and flatbed rose by 30% WoW.
Truck availability was also on the rise notching a gain of 8% WoW. While availability was up, the gains only managed to recover roughly half of the truck availability decline we saw from Labor Day week.
Yet again I must apologize as the full data breakdown of availability by segment I normally cover here is not available this week. While I do not have the exact figures, what I can tell you is that we know flatbed postings are largely responsible for the increase in the overall truck postings.
Spot rates dipped by 6¢ per mile WoW, and all three segments’ rates fell as well. Dry van fell by 8¢, as did refrigerated, and flatbed declined by 2¢ per mile WoW.
Outside of the Labor Day holiday, spot load postings have maintained a steady rate since early July and have continued to outpace the seasonal expectations. Given the current and continued supply chain disruptions this seems unlikely to change for the time being. All three major segments remain well above last year’s volume, but the specialized segment in week 37 was significantly below the prior year’s levels, marking the first time that has happened this year.
Well into the year trailer and truck production is still lagging behind the surging demand. Unfortunately, the supply chain issues responsible for the shortages don’t look like they will be resolved any time soon. However, when the problems are eliminated and the supply chain is fully restored allowing production to kick back in, expect both the trailer and truck segments to set records.
So just how bad are these supply chain problems? Well, experts are now saying the current supply chain problems and shortages have produced the worst environment we’ve seen since World War 2. The semiconductor shortage is perhaps the most well-known production issue currently plaguing manufacturers but is far from the only one.
In fact, there are currently more than 20 products and parts experiencing late and/or partial deliveries. The availability of missing parts is ever-changing, so as soon as one part is able to make up past shortfalls and restore the supply, another part seems to fall behind.
This is such an issue that even if the semiconductor shortage was eliminated, Class 8 production would still not be able to get back to full capacity production. Due to these constant component shortages, OEMs are now assembling units that are not and currently cannot be completed.
As of this moment, there are anywhere from 13,000 – 20,000 partially built Class 8 trucks just waiting for components before they can be fully completed.
With all these shortages and partially built trucks laying around, it’s unsurprising that truck production is currently running at an average monthly deficit of more than 11,000 units compared to the maximum production potential. Trailers, meanwhile, are running at a deficit of around 9,000 per month.
The current component shortages are expected to last through at least the first half of 2022. Provided the labor markets recover, trailer production should be able to ramp back up faster hopefully be able to meet demand by 2022; but Class 8 truck production seems unlikely to meet the growing demand until sometime in 2023.
FTR forecasts the U.S. Class 8 truck deliveries could reach 274,000 this year before spiking to 335,000 next year and 360,000 in 2023. Similarly, they forecast U.S. trailer deliveries to surpass 300,000 in 2022, 2023, and 2024.
That’s it for this week’s report. We hope the information has been useful to you. If it has don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe. Come on back and join us next Wednesday for an all-new report with updated figures and a new story of the week. Until then, have a great week everybody.